dow jones futures

Dow Jones daily analysis – 5th November 2010

By admin · Comments (0)

Friday, November 5th, 2010

Dow Jones Daily Chart - 5th November 2010

The Dow Jones surged higher yesterday, closing on Wall Street last night with an almost perfect wide spread up candle, ending the trading session 219.71 points higher at 11,434.84 having risen 1.96% on the day. The catalyst for the surge higher came of course from the FED, who finally unveiled their quantitative easing programme, with equities and commodities soaring higher on the news, whilst the US dollar came under increasing pressure during the day, and now looks set to weaken further over the next few months.

From a technical perspective the move higher was as we expected, as over the last two weeks both the 9 and 14 day moving averages provided excellent support, with the index failing to close below these two key technical indicators since early September, a strong signal that positive sentiment remained firm in the market, a view duly validated yesterday, with the wide spread up candle breaking and holding above our short term resistance area at 11,250. Our volume spread analysis also supported this view, since the daily volumes have given no signals that the market makers are selling into a resistant market, and indeed yesterday’s volume was a perfect signal that we can expect to see further gains today and over the coming week, with the wide spread up bar supported with an increase in volume at 243.7M. As such, this has created a picture of increasing prices and increasing volume, another strong signal that the Dow Jones index is set to rise further as we move towards the year end. Indeed on could argue that the Santa Claus rally, which is a common feature at this time of year, has come early, courtesy of the FED!

In summary, the short and medium term outlook for the index remains strongly bullish with a well defined platform of support now in place at the 11,200 price handle, which should now provide the springboard for a sustained move higher and a bullish end to the year. My year end forecast for the Dow 30 was 11,875, but given the fact that both the technical and fundamental picture are strongly aligned, we may even see the 12,000 price level and beyond breached in due course, as the QE2 programme kicks in, and downwards pressure on the US dollar continues over the next few weeks. The moving averages all continue to provide excellent support, with both the 9 and 14 day in particular giving us strongly bullish signals, and with the 40 day pointing sharply higher and the 200 day moving average beginning to slope up, the positive picture is complete, and we can look forward to a sustained and extended bull run for equities to the end of the year.

You can follow my latest ftse 100 forecast by clicking on the link here.

Comments (0)

Categories : dow jones index

Dow jones daily analysis – 2nd November 2010

By admin · Comments (0)

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Dow Jones daily chart - 2nd November 2010

A volatile day of trading on the Dow Jones index, which saw the US index hit an intra day high of 11,244,27 early in the trading session, before pulling back sharply to close marginally higher on the day once again, gaining just 6.13, and ending with a shooting star candle on the daily chart. The technical picture is being dominated by the fundamental news at present, with markets increasingly nervous ahead of Wednesday’s crucial FED meeting, when the long awaited QE2 policy will finally be unveiled. In addition, further uncertainty is also coming from the ongoing mid term elections with results due on the same day as the FED meeting, all adding to the nervousness we have seen over the last ten days. Yesterday’s trading volume was below average once again at 150.1M as investors preferred to wait until after Wednesday before entering the market with any confidence.

From a technical perspective, yesterday’s candle has of course given us a short term bearish signal, but with low volume, not high, this suggests that the market makers are still comfortable buying the market. Had we seen this signal accompanied by very high volume then our analysis would suggest a very different picture, with professional money dumping stock ahead of tomorrow’s meeting. This in itself suggests that the market makers expect stocks to continue higher, and indeed with yesterday’s price action continuing to hold above the 14 day moving average once again, this would confirm this analysis. Yesterday’s price action also created a potential area of short term resistance at the 11,244 area where we saw prices pull back last week, and this now needs to be breached in order to take us up to the next level in the bullish trend.

In summary, we may see a short term pullback in trading today, but the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish, and provided the QE2 programme is viewed as aggressive by the equity markets, sending the US dollar lower as a result, then expect to see the Dow Jones index break higher as we move towards our year end target of 11,867. You can read my latest ftse 100 forecast for the UK index here.

Comments (0)

Categories : dow jones index

Tags : 30 day forecast dow jones, daily forecast dow, djia forecast, djia forecast daily, dow forecast, dow jones daily analysis, dow jones forecast, dow jones trend, forecast dow, trend for dow

Dow Jones Daily Analysis – 1st November 2010

By admin · Comments (0)

Monday, November 1st, 2010

Dow Jones Index - daily chart 1st November 2010

The Dow 30 closed the week and Friday’s US trading session with the index trading in a very narrow range, ending with a small doji candle perched on the 9 day moving average having traded in a 60 point range throughout the day to finally close at 11,118.49, as the markets wait for this week’s key announcement from the FED on Wednesday. From a technical perspective the outlook for the Dow Jones Index remains firmly bullish, as we continue to hold above all four moving averages, with both the 9 and 14 day MA’s providing excellent short term support as evidenced on Friday, replicating the pattern that we have saw for much of last week. Below, the 40 day moving average continues to point sharply higher and with the 200 day moving average beginning to incline upwards, the picture for US equities remains positive.

For a continuation of the upwards momentum we now need to see a break and hold above the high of last week at 11,247.60, and provided this is achieved during the week, then coupled with the sideways price congestion of the last two weeks, this should provide the springboard for a sustained break higher, and a move towards our year end target of 11,858 for the index. Friday’s volume of 189.7 M was marginally above average, as traders and investors squared positions ahead of the weekend. The important point to note however, is that there are no signals at present of heavy selling from the market makers, which suggests that they are continuing to support the trend higher, and we can therefore assume that the upwards trend is set to continue for the longer term. Remember, we are looking for anomalies here such as excessive volume with narrow spreads, or wide spreads with low volume, both of which will provide an early warning signal that the professional money is preparing to exit and trap traders into weak trading positions.

From a fundamental perspective the US market is now dominated by two coincident events which occur on Wednesday, namely the mid term elections and the FED monthly meeting on interest rates, when details of the QE2 programme of quantitative easing should finally be confirmed as the programme rolls out after weeks of rumour and speculation. Provided the programme is unveiled as the markets expect, and more importantly, is considered to be aggressive, then the US dollar will no doubt continue to weaken further, with equities and commodities picking up momentum to move firmly higher once again.

Comments (0)

Categories : dow jones index

Tags : 30 day forecast dow jones, bet on the dow, dow forecast, dow index forecast, dow jones analysis, dow jones daily analysis, dow jones daily forecast, dow jones forecast, dow jones forecasts, dow jones futures, dow jones today, forecast dow, forecast dow index, forecast dow jones

Dow Jones forecast today

By admin · Comments (0)

Friday, October 29th, 2010

Dow Jones Index - daily chart 29th October 2010

The Dow Jones index held above the 14 day moving average once again yesterday, closing the US trading session as a small doji candle ending at 11113.95, 12.33 lower on the day, or -0.11%. The feature of this week’s trading on the Dow has been both the sideways price action coupled with a failure to breach the 14 day moving average which continues to provide support in any intra day testing to the downside, a feature we saw once again yesterday. The nervousness of the markets is hardly surprising as we await next week’s key meeting on Wednesday where the FED will finally announce details of its long awaited QE programme, with the interest rate decision being a secondary issue.

Yesterday’s trading was characterised once again with below average volume as investors and traders withdraw from the market ahead of next week’s FED meeting. From a technical perspective sentiment for the Dow remains firmly bullish as we continue to hold above the short term moving averages and with both the 40 and 200 day averages now inclining upwards the longer term outlook remains positive with our initial target of 11258 still in view at year end, a level not seen since mid 2008. In the short term we now need to see a break and hold above the high of Monday at 11,240.91 which should then provide the platform necessary for a continuation of the bullish trend.

You can read my latest FTSE 100 forecast here for the UK market.

Comments (0)

Categories : dow jones index

Tags : dow jones, dow jones chart, dow jones future, dow jones futures, dow jones futures index, dow jones futures live, dow jones futures quote, dow jones index., dow jones industrial, dow jones market, dow jones stock market, dow jones stocks, dow jones today, futures dow jones

Dow Jones daily analysis

By admin · Comments (0)

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

DJIA - daily chart 27th October 2010

An interesting day of trading on the Dow Jones index yesterday, with US markets initially falling, only to recover later in the session, and ending marginally higher, up just 5.41 index points on the day at 11,196.46. From a technical perspective, the candle created ended with a deep wick to the lower body, which tested support at the 14 day moving average, with the move lower having been signalled by Monday’s shooting star candle which had hinted at a possible short term reversal. The surprising aspect to yesterday’s session was the recovery later in the day, with the low of the session bouncing off the key 14 day moving average, giving us a strong signal that the bullish momentum of the last few weeks remains firmly in place for the time being, and as such we may see the Dow Jones move higher today as a result.

However, what is interesting at the moment is the apparent minor breakdown in correlation this morning between the US markets and the UK markets, with the FTSE 100 moving lower this morning following yesterday’s break below the 14 day moving average, whilst the Dow Jones closed yesterday above this key indicator, and failed to follow the FTSE 100 lower yesterday. Equity markets of course continue to be dominated by the FED and the meeting early next month which will finally confirm the roll out of the QE2 programme of quantitative easing, with further US dollar weakness expected, which should provide a further boost to equities as a result.

From a technical perspective the picture for the Dow Jones remains firmly positive, with yesterday’s price action holding well above all four moving averages once again, with the shorter term MA’s providing excellent support to the bullish trend, further enhanced by the 40 day moving average which is pointing sharply higher. Yesterday’s volume was slightly below average at 159.0m on the day, but as such gives little hint of any selling by the market makers at this level, and therefore we can assume that any pullback in the short term will simply be a minor correction. The longer term outlook for the index remains firmly bullish, and a break and hold above the high of Monday at 11,247.60, will open the way for a sustained move higher towards our year end target of 11,823 in due course. You can read my ftse 100 forecast by following the link here.

Comments (0)

Categories : dow jones index

Tags : dji futures index details, djia forecast, DJIA forecast today, dow forecast, dow forecast today, dow jones forecast, dow jones futures, dow jones futures today, dow jones index today, forecast dow, forecast dow jones, forecast for dow today

« Previous Page

My trading and investing sites

Dow Jones daily analysis – 5th November 2010

Dow jones daily analysis – 2nd November 2010

Dow Jones Daily Analysis – 1st November 2010

Dow Jones forecast today

Dow Jones daily analysis

(c) The Financial Times Limited (2010)

dow jones futures pages